Russian Analyst Warns Of Taliban Collapse & Looming Civil War In Afghanistan

Andrey Serenko, head of the Russian Centre for Contemporary Afghanistan Studies, has warned that Afghanistan is heading toward a fresh civil war. He claimed that the Taliban’s survival is temporary and largely due to support from the United States.

In a recent interview, Serenko said the Taliban regime is unsustainable and will not endure—even with American funding or the rise of Sirajuddin Haqqani, despite international support for him.

He argued that once a civil war begins, foreign actors will withdraw, leaving Russia with no choice but to intervene. However, Serenko acknowledged that Moscow is not currently prepared to do so due to its ongoing war in Ukraine and the pressure of international sanctions.

Still, he urged the Kremlin to start preparing for future instability in Afghanistan. He stressed the need for a multi-faceted foreign policy, warning against reliance on a single approach. Serenko advised that Russia should engage with various Afghan factions to safeguard its long-term interests.

He said that internal divisions within the Taliban have worsened since they took power. While the group initially tried to maintain unity, infighting and rivalry have escalated.

In addition to internal fractures, Serenko pointed to growing armed resistance. He named groups such as the National Resistance Front and the Afghanistan Freedom Front, which continue to launch attacks—particularly in areas where Taliban officials now fear to appear after dark.

US Support: The Taliban’s Lifeline

Serenko accused the United States of propping up the Taliban regime to avoid renewed instability. He questioned who would implement the Doha Agreement if the Taliban collapsed, implying this concern drives continued US engagement.

He described the US as the Taliban’s primary financial backer and claimed Washington handed over power in Afghanistan to the group. This, he argued, explains why American support continues.

Serenko dismissed any notion that the Taliban’s past resistance to US forces makes them potential allies for Russia, calling the idea “absurd.” He insisted no other country cooperates with the Taliban as extensively as the US does.

Despite this backing, Serenko predicted the Taliban’s rule will not last. He said their three and a half years in power are not significant in historical terms. He compared the situation to previous Afghan regimes, noting the communist government survived over a decade before falling, while the republican government collapsed in just three days. He suggested the Taliban will meet a similar end.

Russia’s Taliban Delisting Decision Raises Concerns

Serenko also addressed Russia’s recent move to consider removing the Taliban from its list of terrorist organisations. When asked about the benefits of this action, he expressed scepticism.

He warned that delisting the Taliban would not make them allies. Instead, it could damage relations with anti-Taliban resistance groups that still look to Russia for support.

Russian state media previously reported that the Prosecutor General’s Office has asked the Supreme Court to temporarily remove the Taliban from the list. The court is expected to review the request on 17 April.