Taliban’s Overthrow a Possibility,Says Former Iranian Diplomat

Former Iranian diplomat Rasoul Mousavi has stated that the possibility of the Taliban administration being overthrown remains due to rebellion, civil war, or foreign intervention.

Speaking at the second roundtable discussion of scholars from Iran, Afghanistan, and Russia in Tehran, Mousavi criticised the Taliban’s monopolisation of power and its governance based solely on Hanafi jurisprudence and Pashtun ethnicity.

According to IRNA news agency, Mousavi outlined three possible scenarios for Afghanistan’s future: continuation of the status quo which means the Taliban retains power without major internal changes. change in governance style that the Taliban modifies its approach, allowing for an inclusive government and behavioural reforms. And the Taliban is overthrown due to rebellion, civil war, or foreign intervention.

Mousavi suggested that the prospect of the Taliban gaining international recognition remains low, citing internal instability, ethnic divisions, and restrictions on women’s rights as major obstacles.

The former Iranian Ambassador to Tajikistan warned that terrorist groups in Afghanistan, including ISIS and Al-Qaeda, pose a serious regional security threat. He argued that instability in Afghanistan directly impacts neighbouring countries, limiting broader regional cooperation.

While regional governments do not wish to see a civil war in Afghanistan, Mousavi stated that the Taliban’s failure to fulfil its promises—particularly regarding inclusive governance, women’s rights, and girls’ education—has further alienated both Afghan society and the international community.

Mousavi also referenced a UN Security Council report highlighting the presence of terrorist groups in Afghanistan and noted that the International Criminal Court (ICC) has called for the arrest of the Taliban’s leader and chief justice over systematic human rights violations.

He concluded that Afghanistan’s long-term stability hinges on the Taliban’s ability to integrate diverse ethnic groups into governance and address major human rights concerns. However, he warned that without these changes, continued instability, regional insecurity, and potential foreign intervention remain real threats.