Former US Ambassador Cautions Afghan Opposition Not To Depend On US Support

Ronald Neumann, a former US Ambassador to Afghanistan, indicated that Afghanistan has fallen off the US foreign policy agenda.

During his interview with Afghanistan International, he advised that groups opposing the Taliban should not expect US support, citing America's current disengagement from Afghan affairs.

Despite the Republican Party's consistent criticism of the US troop withdrawal and concerns over terrorist groups linked to the Taliban, Neumann expressed skepticism about any potential shift in US policy towards Afghanistan due to the ongoing partisan divide.

He emphasized the limited effectiveness of various opposition factions, including the National Resistance Front, in posing a significant military threat to the Taliban. This perceived weakness, Neumann noted, has made foreign powers, including the US, reluctant to commit substantial resources to these groups.

On January 12, Michael McCaul, the Chairman of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, showed interest in engaging with Afghan opposition leaders, including Ahmad Massoud of the National Resistance Front, and other groups opposed to the Taliban regime. His statements have garnered positive responses from Afghan political entities.

Neumann highlighted the US's strategic deadlock post-military withdrawal, leaving it with limited leverage over the Taliban. He pointed out that the Biden administration, facing the 2024 elections, would prefer to avoid Afghanistan-related discussions, considering it a vulnerable aspect of Biden's tenure. Conversely, Republicans might exploit the Afghan situation for electoral criticism.

Despite the grim post-withdrawal scenario, especially concerning women's rights in Afghanistan, Neumann stressed that the American electorate is preoccupied with more pressing issues like the conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, along with domestic US concerns.

He acknowledged the US's moral obligation to continue humanitarian aid to Afghanistan but admitted the risk of Taliban exploitation of this assistance. Neumann cautioned that stringent monitoring conditions on aid could lead to widespread starvation among Afghans.

Neumann opined that the Taliban might encounter sporadic instability, given their lack of representation of all Pashtuns and unwillingness to form an inclusive government. Despite this, he observed the Taliban's effectiveness in maintaining internal unity, military strength, and increasing domestic revenues, suggesting they are unlikely to face significant challenges in the near future.